Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd032…60a6 world 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$24
14 days−$22
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$13
sports 30% $0
other 25% $0
politics 5% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.7% -10.1% 36% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 43 +0.5% -9.1% 37% 2% -9.7%
all 79 +0.3% -9.3% 35% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 51
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage304d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $93 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $83 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $84 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 24 $285 −$25 -9%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $84 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $94 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $92 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $93 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $242 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $92 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $82 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $105 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $157 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $84 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $45 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $83 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $95 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $99 +$7 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $21 +$5 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $95 −$2 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $3 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $97 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $97 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $217 +$1 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $53 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,849 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $638 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 22 $4 $0 -2%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $21 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $94 24m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $93 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $46 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $83 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $83 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $84 32h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $13 38h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $13 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $71 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $84 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $93 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $93 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $92 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $92 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $21 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $28 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $53 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $40 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $93 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 334 history records