Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd032…5136 sports 294 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$380 (+1%) realized +$369 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%167W / 114L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,734now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$271
7 days−$68
14 days+$1,355
30 days+$1,678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% +$2,050
sports 28% +$317
crypto 23% −$2,750
world 9% −$485
politics 8% +$796
tech 5% +$295
culture 0% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +1.3% -8.4% 47% 47% -14.5%
≤30d 88 +13.4% +2.6% 59% 58% +8.5%
≤90d 162 -3.5% -12.7% 53% 49% -5.5%
all 281 +2.5% -7.3% 59% 49% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 49% -8.8%
10% -16.2% 37% -17.5%
15% -24.3% 32% -25.5%
20% -31.7% 25% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$81 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$1,734
Realized+$369
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses167 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions11
Markets (closed)281 / 294
History coverage238d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 85¢ 92¢ $500 $544 +$44 (+9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $450 $486 +$36 (+8%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $266 $270 +$3 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $260 $258 −$2 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $30 $40 +$9 (+31%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 17¢ $53 $25 −$28 (-52%)
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 9¢ $43 $18 −$25 (-58%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 10¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-80%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $130 −$35 -27%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $61 +$167 +272%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$110 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $46 +$28 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$29 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$39 +97%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $83 −$68 -82%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 15 $203 −$75 -37%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 15 $229 −$200 -88%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,239 −$76 -6%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $633 +$96 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $101 +$42 +42%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $223 +$192 +86%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$64 +210%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $71 +$75 +105%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $101 +$49 +48%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $25 +$20 +80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$51 +250%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $141 +$166 +118%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $30 +$18 +59%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $50 +$14 +27%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $40 −$2 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $470 +$254 +54%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 11 $41 +$57 +140%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 11 $61 +$67 +110%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $61 +$72 +119%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $203 +$197 +97%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $20 +$14 +67%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 11 $25 +$19 +76%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $30 +$23 +75%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$35 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$65 +129%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $101 +$63 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 49¢ $25 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $212 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $95 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 24h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $67 41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $8 41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $2 42h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $97 44h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $1 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $6 47h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $85 47h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $46 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 41¢ $25 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 10¢ $15 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 51¢ $128 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $28 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 77¢ $203 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 49¢ $83 7d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 67¢ $101 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,733.84 · official $1,734.98 (match) · 1034 history records