Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:54:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd033…033d crypto 311 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$198 (+2%) realized +$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%140W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days−$385
14 days−$385
30 days−$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$290
world 30% +$27
sports 18% +$424
other 13% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -46.7% -51.8% 25% 23% -31.9%
≤30d 57 -39.4% -45.2% 30% 28% -24.8%
≤90d 239 -11.7% -20.1% 41% 39% -10.3%
all 310 -6.3% -15.2% 45% 44% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 44% -8.9%
10% -23.3% 44% -17.6%
15% -30.7% 41% -25.6%
20% -37.5% 36% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$21 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses140 / 170
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)310 / 311
History coverage176d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$27 +89%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$39 +134%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$28 +140%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $24 +$26 +107%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$44 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$37 +73%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $57 +$47 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$20 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 +$50 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $45 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $58 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $30 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $19 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $69 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $30 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $9 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 29h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $24 42h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $41 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $57 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $50 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $79 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $98 4d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $122 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $8 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.42 · official $44.42 (match) · 682 history records