Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

D0 0xd039…b0b6 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$121 (+11%) realized +$120 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate82%23W / 5L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$28per market

Trades / day33.7pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit59%portable

Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+3.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	28	+13.8%	+3.0%	82%	64%	+3.5%
≤30d	28	+13.8%	+3.0%	82%	64%	+3.5%
≤90d	28	+13.8%	+3.0%	82%	64%	+3.5%
all	28	+13.8%	+3.0%	82%	64%	+3.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+3.0%	64%	+3.5%
10% ← realistic here	-6.9%	29%	-6.4%
15%	-15.9%	14%	-15.5%
20%	-24.1%	7%	-23.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late +22% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×3.52 per $1 lost it wins $3.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$411

Realized+$120

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)82%

Wins / losses23 / 5

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions10

Markets (closed)28 / 39

History coverage2d

Avg bet$28

Trades / day33.7

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 10 History 28 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$20	$25	+$5 (+27%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	14¢	$20	$24	+$4 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	8¢	$20	$23	+$3 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	19¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	3¢	$20	$17	−$3 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$20	$17	−$3 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	11¢	$20	$17	−$3 (-15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$40	+$3	+8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$10	−$2	-24%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$50	+$7	+14%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5	Jun 24	$100	+$10	+10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$10	+$5	+50%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	Jun 24	$50	+$9	+18%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 24	$75	+$5	+7%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$50	+$6	+12%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$20	+$51	+250%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$35	−$35	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$30	+$5	+17%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$40	+$5	+14%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$10	$0	+4%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$11	+$3	+28%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$30	+$5	+17%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$50	+$6	+12%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 23	$2	−$2	-85%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$10	−$8	-76%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$30	+$16	+52%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5	Jun 23	$70	+$10	+14%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 23	$10	−$3	-32%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	Jun 22	$10	+$2	+18%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	Jun 22	$10	+$3	+33%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$50	+$2	+3%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5	Jun 22	$10	+$1	+15%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$10	+$3	+32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$40	+$13	+31%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$10	+$5	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	93¢	$40	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	50¢	$8	1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 2.5	BUY Under	88¢	$50	2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	91¢	$100	3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	84¢	$50	5h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	94¢	$50	5h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	93¢	$15	6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$20	8h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	89¢	$40	9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$10	9h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	87¢	$30	10h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	93¢	$10	23h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	91¢	$10	23h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	90¢	$10	23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$25	23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	85¢	$30	23h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	90¢	$1	24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	85¢	$1	24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	82¢	$1	24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	78¢	$5	24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	73¢	$1	24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	70¢	$1	24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	68¢	$1	24h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	8¢	$0	24h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	52¢	$1	24h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	52¢	$1	24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	16¢	$2	24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5	BUY Under	88¢	$10	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.55 · official $410.38 (match) · 100 history records