Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:41:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D0 0xd03c…c713 crypto 367 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$686 (-1%) realized −$686 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate95%347W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$3
14 days−$12
30 days−$922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$732
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -0.6% -10.1% 93% 4% -9.3%
≤30d 283 -1.0% -10.4% 94% 5% -11.5%
≤90d 367 -1.0% -10.4% 95% 4% -10.8%
all 367 -1.0% -10.4% 95% 4% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -10.8%
10% -19.0% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$108 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$686
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses347 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)367 / 367
History coverage46d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 367 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $49 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$7 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$26 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $49 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $50 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $0 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.19 · official $10.19 (match) · 1188 history records