Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:15:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd03e…f7e7 other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-2%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$3
other 24% −$25
politics 23% −$9
crypto 9% +$1
tech 6% $0
sports 4% +$3
finance 1% −$6
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 25 -2.3% -11.6% 20% 4% -11.5%
all 54 -2.9% -12.2% 33% 6% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 6% -11.2%
10% -20.6% 4% -19.7%
15% -28.2% 4% -27.4%
20% -35.3% 4% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)54 / 58
History coverage542d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 65¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $63 −$3 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $112 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $112 $0 -0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $123 −$23 -19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $43 −$10 -23%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $41 +$4 +9%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $73 −$1 -1%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $233 +$7 +3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $151 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $8 $0 +3%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $235 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $21 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $4 $0 +12%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $10 $0 -5%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +5%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Paulo Raimundo be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2 May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix? Apr 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 30 $12 $0 -4%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 16? Mar 18 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 12 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $28 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 26h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $28 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $14 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 8d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $13 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $7 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $6 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $15 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $14 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $29 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $32 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $7 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $28 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.89 · official $27.88 · 165 history records