Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D0 0xd040…74ef crypto 64 markets active 13h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+0%) realized −$41 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%58W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$537now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$11
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$207
other 13% +$22
economics 12% +$36
finance 10% +$47
tech 5% +$93
politics 4% +$4
world 3% +$28
sports 2% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 16 +2.1% -7.7% 100% 0% -8.2%
all 61 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 5% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$707) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$102 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$537
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses58 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage264d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 72¢ 99¢ $224 $309 +$85 (+38%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $117 $122 +$6 (+5%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $106 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 25 $851 +$4 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $427 +$6 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $268 +$2 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 08 $160 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 03 $160 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 25 $158 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 23 $225 +$2 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 22 $711 +$3 +0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 16 $147 +$11 +7%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 16 $143 +$5 +4%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 16 $134 +$8 +6%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 16 $122 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 06 $761 +$23 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 Week of March 30 2026? Apr 07 $760 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 31 $168 +$11 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 30 $574 +$7 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 24 $721 +$22 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? Mar 13 $524 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? Mar 13 $190 +$3 +1%
SBF released from custody in 2026? Mar 11 $714 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 03 $712 +$2 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Feb 28 $710 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 26 $707 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8? Feb 07 $291 −$291 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January? Feb 05 $520 +$3 +1%
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 04 $192 +$24 +12%
Will NVIDIA dip to $144 in January? Jan 30 $40 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of January? Jan 26 $217 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 25 $518 +$2 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 07 $191 +$2 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Dec 28 $748 +$28 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $188 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $706 +$42 +6%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 09 $185 +$3 +2%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 15 $191 +$2 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 15 $619 +$3 +0%
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? Nov 13 $76 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $618 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 1? Nov 02 $618 +$1 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 01 $1 $0 +31%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 01 $141 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 31 $361 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 30 $1,396 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.90 on October 22? Oct 22 $297 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on October 21? Oct 21 $549 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on October 21? Oct 20 $871 +$5 +1%
Will Solana reach $250 October 13-19? Oct 20 $870 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on October 18? Oct 17 $864 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $270 on October 16? Oct 17 $863 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $375 13h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $105 13h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $374 13h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $480 20h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $477 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $68 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $325 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $269 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $268 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $161 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $59 19d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $5 19d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $44 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $21 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $21 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $118 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $160 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $160 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 100¢ $159 31d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $227 33d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $227 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 99¢ $158 34d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $159 34d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $158 40d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $138 40d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $3 40d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $17 40d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $36 40d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $46 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $537.09 · official $537.09 (match) · 171 history records