Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd043…38dd crypto 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate80%147W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$7
weather 4% −$3
sports 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 +4.0% -5.9% 83% 46% -7.6%
≤30d 179 +3.7% -6.2% 82% 45% -8.8%
≤90d 183 +2.4% -7.3% 80% 44% -9.4%
all 183 +2.4% -7.3% 80% 44% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 44% -9.4%
10% -16.2% 29% -18.1%
15% -24.3% 15% -26.0%
20% -31.7% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses147 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 184
History coverage37d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 505 history records