Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:30:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D0 0xd045…98d3 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+6%) realized +$73 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$81
14 days+$81
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$53
crypto 16% +$24
politics 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +10.1% -0.4% 86% 57% -2.5%
≤30d 8 -3.6% -12.8% 75% 50% -3.9%
≤90d 8 -3.6% -12.8% 75% 50% -3.9%
all 8 -3.6% -12.8% 75% 50% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 50% -3.9%
10% -21.2% 12% -13.1%
15% -28.8% 0% -21.5%
20% -35.8% 0% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$23 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage26d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$37 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $233 −$30 -13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 +$33 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $187 +$14 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 21 $13 +$3 +22%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 31 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 74¢ $203 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $233 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $233 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $201 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $201 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $187 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $17 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $16 4d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el BUY Yes 81¢ $13 25d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 84¢ $15 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.75 · official $198.75 (match) · 16 history records