Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D0 0xd04a…d7ec other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$716 (+1%) realized +$1,269 · open −$553
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate57%76W / 57L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$721per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$8,804now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,766
7 days−$2,005
14 days−$2,077
30 days+$282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$5,191
world 29% +$3,721
politics 23% +$1,187
sports 10% +$688
finance 3% +$159
economics 2% −$60
tech 2% −$2
crypto 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -0.9% -10.3% 63% 57% -17.5%
≤30d 55 +9.1% -1.3% 67% 58% -8.7%
≤90d 68 +3.9% -6.0% 68% 50% -7.9%
all 133 -5.8% -14.7% 57% 40% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 40% -8.4%
10% -22.9% 34% -17.2%
15% -30.3% 21% -25.2%
20% -37.2% 17% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$253 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$8,804
Realized+$1,269
Unrealized−$553
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses76 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions5
Markets (closed)133 / 138
History coverage245d
Avg bet$721
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3,111 $2,926 −$185 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2,910 $2,888 −$22 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,236 $1,951 −$284 (-13%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1,000 $988 −$12 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$20 +97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $303 +$154 +51%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $253 +$46 +18%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $212 −$212 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $203 −$167 -82%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $193 −$193 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $204 −$204 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 18 $287 −$287 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $505 −$505 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $3,018 −$3,018 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $504 +$210 +42%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $506 +$310 +61%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $100 +$19 +19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$37 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$60 +60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $604 +$158 +26%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,510 +$405 +27%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $483 +$132 +27%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 +$21 +55%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $605 +$240 +40%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $301 +$40 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$101 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$90 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$29 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $806 −$806 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,207 +$279 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $1,400 +$439 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,008 +$289 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,019 +$647 +32%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$4 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $260 −$71 -27%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 02 $2,174 +$78 +4%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 02 $938 +$81 +9%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $458 +$663 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 52m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $202 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 77¢ $299 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $253 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $101 11h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $404 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $88 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $29 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $504 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $173 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $86 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $86 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 83¢ $100 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,027 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $239 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,803.74 · official $8,803.74 (match) · 731 history records