Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

D0 0xd04b…1ee8 crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$634 (-14%) realized −$655 · open +$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip

Net edge+60%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate64%14W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$199per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$29

7 days−$190

14 days−$155

30 days−$213

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+60.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-33.3%	-39.7%	50%	50%	-45.4%
≤30d	11	+178.7%	+152.1%	82%	82%	-23.6%
≤90d	22	+77.1%	+60.3%	64%	64%	-26.6%
all	22	+77.1%	+60.3%	64%	64%	-26.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+60.3%	64%	-26.6%
10%	+44.9%	14%	-33.6%
15%	+30.9%	5%	-40.1%
20%	+18.1%	5%	-45.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +77% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -24% → late +179% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$134 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.36 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage

Net worth$245

Realized−$655

Unrealized+$21

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses14 / 8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage89d

Avg bet$199

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24?	Up	50¢	55¢	$224	$245	+$21 (+9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23?	Jun 22	$208	+$29	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	Jun 16	$511	−$219	-43%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?	Jun 15	$201	+$35	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4?	Jun 03	$262	−$254	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	Jun 02	$217	+$51	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2?	Jun 01	$178	+$38	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30?	May 29	$141	+$31	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29?	May 29	$227	+$37	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28?	May 27	$89	+$18	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27?	May 26	$76	+$14	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26?	May 25	$45	+$7	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23?	May 24	$44	−$19	-44%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 17?	May 24	$165	−$165	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22?	May 22	$12	+$2	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 16?	Apr 16	$303	−$30	-10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 15?	Apr 15	$280	+$53	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 4?	Apr 14	$19	−$19	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1?	Apr 14	$198	−$198	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 3?	Apr 03	$16	+$4	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 27?	Mar 31	$774	−$166	-22%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31?	Mar 31	$290	+$35	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 26?	Mar 26	$100	+$30	+30%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24?	BUY Up	50¢	$232	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23?	SELL Down	60¢	$216	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23?	SELL Down	60¢	$16	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23?	SELL Down	60¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23?	BUY Down	51¢	$208	25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	51¢	$157	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	51¢	$27	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	51¢	$91	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	SELL Up	58¢	$281	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	47¢	$237	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?	SELL Down	62¢	$213	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?	SELL Down	62¢	$22	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?	SELL Down	62¢	$1	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?	BUY Down	51¢	$201	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4?	BUY Up	57¢	$257	20d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4?	BUY Up	51¢	$5	20d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Up	66¢	$80	21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Up	66¢	$1	21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Up	66¢	$1	21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Up	66¢	$4	21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Up	66¢	$2	21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Up	66¢	$2	21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Up	66¢	$1	21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Up	66¢	$4	21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Up	66¢	$16	21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Up	66¢	$3	21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Up	66¢	$2	21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Up	66¢	$3	21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Up	66¢	$10	21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Up	66¢	$3	21d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.25 · official $245.25 (match) · 191 history records