Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D0 0xd04c…c640 weather 664 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,764 (-15%) realized −$1,756 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%384W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$33
14 days+$134
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% −$1,339
crypto 16% +$30
sports 8% +$170
other 5% +$116
world 1% +$88
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$32
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 100 +13.3% +2.5% 87% 23% -0.7%
≤90d 655 -9.7% -18.3% 59% 38% -17.1%
all 655 -9.7% -18.3% 59% 38% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 38% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 24% -25.0%
15% -33.3% 17% -32.3%
20% -39.8% 13% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$1,756
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses384 / 271
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions9
Markets (closed)655 / 664
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 655 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-77%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No 44¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
No one announced as next James Bond? No 13¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? No 5¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026? No 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? No 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 +$9 +8%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 13? Jun 13 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $127 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $197 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $29 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 06 $32 −$5 -15%
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $52 −$41 -80%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 06 $10 +$6 +56%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 06 $4 +$2 +56%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $42 +$108 +255%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $27 −$27 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Jun 05 $5 +$54 +1071%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +22%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $15 +$47 +322%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21 +$46 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 29 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 29 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +11%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 13h
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 16h
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 16h
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 17h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 20h
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 28h
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $110 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $90 2d
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 3d
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 4d
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $127 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? BUY Yes 98¢ $197 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 8d
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $11 8d
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 8d
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 9d
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.73 · official $104.76 (match) · 3500 history records