Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:50:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd04c…b4dd crypto 923 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$772 (-5%) realized −$772 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%326W / 694L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day97.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,376
sports 0% −$5
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 367 -52.4% -56.9% 23% 19% -51.8%
≤30d 831 -32.9% -39.3% 32% 27% -31.5%
≤90d 1020 -32.7% -39.2% 32% 27% -29.2%
all 1020 -32.7% -39.2% 32% 27% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.2% 27% -29.2%
10% ← realistic here -45.0% 23% -35.9%
15% -50.3% 20% -42.1%
20% -55.2% 16% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$772
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses326 / 694
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1020 / 923
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day97.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1020 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $44 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records