Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:57:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd04e…2097 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% $0
other 15% −$2
politics 11% +$16
economics 3% $0
weather 3% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 24% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 24% 0% -9.7%
all 34 +1.1% -8.6% 35% 9% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 9% -7.8%
10% -17.3% 9% -16.7%
15% -25.3% 9% -24.7%
20% -32.6% 6% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage474d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 10¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $26 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $65 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $11 +$5 +44%
Will the PPC win 2 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 25 $1 $0 -14%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 25 $29 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on March 31? Apr 03 $11 +$5 +50%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 23? Mar 24 $22 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 21 $22 $0 -0%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 21 $18 +$11 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $35 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 9h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $7 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 10¢ $3 15h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 10¢ $1 15h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 10¢ $3 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $22 21h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 21h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $9 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $9 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $36 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $29 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $32 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.94 · official $1.94 (match) · 116 history records