Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:55:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd04f…22ea sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$131 (-5%) realized −$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$137
7 days−$173
14 days−$270
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$325
sports 45% −$391
crypto 7% −$180
weather 2% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -35.4% -41.5% 33% 33% -20.4%
≤30d 35 -21.3% -28.8% 40% 37% -18.1%
≤90d 35 -21.3% -28.8% 40% 37% -18.1%
all 35 -21.3% -28.8% 40% 37% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 37% -18.1%
10% -35.6% 34% -26.0%
15% -41.9% 34% -33.1%
20% -47.6% 26% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$49 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage12d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $124 −$5 -4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $129 −$5 -4%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $52 −$43 -83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $151 +$72 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $49 −$10 -21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $110 +$84 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 −$6 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $100 −$28 -28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $56 +$7 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $66 +$37 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $113 +$83 +73%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$31 -90%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$99 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $96 +$44 +46%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $112 +$95 +85%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $74 −$73 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $71 +$55 +78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $172 −$170 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$82 +81%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $381 +$23 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$36 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $31 −$8 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 −$16 -51%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$44 +88%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Spread: England (-1 BUY 4¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $8 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 61¢ $120 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $124 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $124 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $129 4h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Doosan Bears 46¢ $51 5h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 12h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $52 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 36h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $37 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $45 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $110 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $69 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $49 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $56 5d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL Doosan Bears 44¢ $44 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.00 · 84 history records