Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:43:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D0 0xd050…d6bc sports 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$92 (-7%) realized +$14 · open −$106

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate47%8W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$49per market

Trades / day8.1pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit59%portable

Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-25.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-17.7%	-25.5%	47%	41%	-18.1%
≤30d	17	-17.7%	-25.5%	47%	41%	-18.1%
≤90d	17	-17.7%	-25.5%	47%	41%	-18.1%
all	17	-17.7%	-25.5%	47%	41%	-18.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.5%	41%	-18.1%
10%	-32.6%	41%	-25.9%
15%	-39.2%	41%	-33.1%
20%	-45.1%	24%	-39.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 51% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -9% → late -26% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$52 vs −$58 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.8 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$93

Realized+$14

Unrealized−$106

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses8 / 9

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions9

Markets (closed)17 / 27

History coverage5d

Avg bet$49

Trades / day8.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic?	Yes	16¢	62¢	$6	$23	+$17 (+288%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	14¢	2¢	$102	$18	−$85 (-83%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$15	$14	−$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$15	$14	−$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic?	Yes	11¢	17¢	$6	$9	+$3 (+55%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	Over	41¢	8¢	$36	$8	−$29 (-79%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?	Yes	17¢	17¢	$6	$6	+$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$6	$0	−$6 (-99%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$6	$0	−$6 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$27	$0	+1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$21	−$21	-98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Kore	Jun 18	$4	−$3	-83%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$36	+$13	+37%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$29	+$32	+109%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$130	+$136	+105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$70	−$69	-99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$99	−$98	-98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$99	−$98	-99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$96	−$94	-99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$97	+$40	+41%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	−$28	-55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$69	+$78	+114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$79	+$40	+50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$100	+$79	+79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	5¢	$15	20m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$15	39m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	19¢	$75	1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	11¢	$6	1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	5¢	$6	1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	10¢	$6	1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	17¢	$6	1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	16¢	$6	1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	35¢	$10	1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$27	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	36¢	$10	10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$17	11h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$21	11h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Kore	BUY	2¢	$3	13h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Kore	SELL	1¢	$1	13h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Kore	BUY	2¢	$1	14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$15	22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$15	22h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	SELL Uzbekistan	69¢	$50	22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$61	23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$29	23h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	49¢	$36	24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$130	30h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	54¢	$70	35h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Col	BUY	4¢	$0	44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$99	3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	51¢	$50	3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	51¢	$49	3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	56¢	$96	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	51¢	$15	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.61 · official $91.49 · 46 history records