Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:41:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D0 0xd050…c915 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$502 (+38%) realized +$392 · open +$110
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$832
other 3% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +49.9% +35.6% 75% 75% +52.8%
≤30d 8 +49.9% +35.6% 75% 75% +52.8%
≤90d 8 +49.9% +35.6% 75% 75% +52.8%
all 8 +49.9% +35.6% 75% 75% +52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.6% 75% +52.8%
10% +22.6% 75% +38.1%
15% +10.8% 75% +24.8%
20% -0.1% 75% +12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$71 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.79 per $1 lost it wins $5.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized+$392
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Marie Bouzkova 29¢ 62¢ $99 $209 +$110 (+112%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jessica Pegula 64¢ 64¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $192 +$110 +58%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $132 +$177 +134%
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Begu (+1.5) Jun 21 $142 +$97 +69%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 +$142 +140%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $178 +$219 +123%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $43 −$42 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Nuno Borges 100¢ $303 23m
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 29¢ $82 28m
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 32¢ $19 30m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 64¢ $121 1h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Nuno Borges 63¢ $192 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Irina-Camelia Begu 100¢ $309 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 42¢ $132 2h
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Begu (+1.5) SELL Begu 99¢ $239 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 34¢ $102 2h
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Begu (+1.5) BUY Begu 58¢ $142 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $102 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U BUY 30¢ $97 13h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $397 13h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $178 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $178 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 15h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $43 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.26 · official $331.60 · 18 history records