Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D0 0xd051…0781 sports 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$364 (-7%) realized −$364 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate66%147W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$6
14 days+$32
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$78
other 37% −$324
sports 19% −$14
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 50% -7.9%
≤30d 155 +1.9% -7.8% 68% 55% -9.4%
≤90d 219 +0.5% -9.0% 66% 55% -14.9%
all 223 -0.1% -9.6% 66% 55% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 55% -16.4%
10% -18.3% 43% -24.4%
15% -26.2% 30% -31.7%
20% -33.4% 22% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$364
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses147 / 76
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)223 / 229
History coverage167d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $49 +$14 +28%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -94%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$6 +32%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 −$9 -47%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$8 +79%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $7 $0 -3%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 −$13 -74%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$12 -62%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Sp Jun 21 $10 $0 -0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$15 -74%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AN Jun 20 $5 +$4 +87%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +41%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +76%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$9 -88%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +120%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$9 +16%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$13 -84%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$4 +44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $17 +$2 +13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $9 +$8 +83%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$3 +28%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $9 +$9 +101%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $9 +$3 +29%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $6 +$3 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $15 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $30 32m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $63 41m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $49 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 12¢ $3 8h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 30¢ $0 19h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 3¢ $0 19h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $4 19h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $17 19h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $10 41h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $10 41h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $10 41h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $11 41h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $20 43h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 9¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $7 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $7 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Sp SELL 52¢ $10 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Sp BUY 51¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $27 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $20 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $29 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL 16¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.78 · official $32.87 · 494 history records