Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:53:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D0 0xd052…fe59 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$68 (+4%) realized +$67 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$221
sports 17% −$79
world 13% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -16.4% -24.3% 44% 33% +0.2%
≤30d 9 -16.4% -24.3% 44% 33% +0.2%
≤90d 9 -16.4% -24.3% 44% 33% +0.2%
all 9 -16.4% -24.3% 44% 33% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 33% +0.2%
10% -31.6% 33% -9.4%
15% -38.2% 33% -18.1%
20% -44.2% 33% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$89 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $105 $106 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $96 +$218 +226%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $291 −$288 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $123 +$67 +54%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 21 $200 +$19 +9%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $48 −$44 -93%
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $524 +$291 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $106 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $314 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $96 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $190 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $190 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $123 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $120 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 3¢ $3 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $48 23h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $99 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $53 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 38¢ $102 25h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $200 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $29 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $420 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $75 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.86 · official $105.86 (match) · 20 history records