Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:04:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd053…3d83 sports 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%20W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$3
politics 25% −$3
other 22% −$4
crypto 9% −$1
economics 6% −$1
world 5% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 151 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses20 / 131
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage158d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $126 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $88 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $96 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $149 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $53 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 21 $364 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $75 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $111 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $189 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $104 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $228 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 18 $214 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $123 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $87 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 15 $212 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 15 $189 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $43 1h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $43 5h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $51 8d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $51 8d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $41 21d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $42 21d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $43 35d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $43 37d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $50 121d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $50 121d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $49 121d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 93¢ $50 121d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 93¢ $47 121d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 94¢ $47 121d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 121d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $48 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $48 121d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $50 121d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $50 121d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 121d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 121d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $44 121d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $44 121d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 93¢ $49 121d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 94¢ $49 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $52 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $52 121d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $52 121d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $53 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 677 history records