Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd056…6633 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$77 (+16%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%22W / 37L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$51
other 24% −$22
sports 17% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -6.4% -15.3% 37% 36% +3.1%
≤30d 59 -6.4% -15.3% 37% 36% +3.1%
≤90d 59 -6.4% -15.3% 37% 36% +3.1%
all 59 -6.4% -15.3% 37% 36% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 36% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 34% -6.8%
15% -30.8% 31% -15.8%
20% -37.6% 27% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses22 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$24 +59%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$16 -73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$6 +91%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $8 +$5 +67%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 +$12 +383%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 −$2 -71%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$7 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +94%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$7 +320%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $58 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $12 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records