Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd056…f1be sports 684 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,254 (+5%) realized +$6,084 · open −$830
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%357W / 458L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Fees−$410est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$12,854now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$1,897
sports 29% +$1,037
other 23% +$3,640
politics 6% −$1,951
crypto 3% +$978
economics 2% +$471
finance 2% +$320
tech 0% −$50
culture 0% +$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -81.9% -83.6% 9% 8% -79.7%
≤30d 359 -42.6% -48.1% 31% 29% -24.1%
≤90d 761 -18.7% -26.4% 43% 40% -12.7%
all 815 -15.4% -23.5% 44% 41% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 41% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 38% -20.9%
15% -37.5% 34% -28.5%
20% -43.6% 30% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$83 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$12,854
Realized+$6,084
Unrealized−$830
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses357 / 458
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$410
Open positions37
Markets (closed)815 / 684
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$167
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 815 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $1,546 $1,558 +$13 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 54¢ $1,799 $1,485 −$314 (-17%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 51¢ $1,129 $1,105 −$24 (-2%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 46¢ 36¢ $1,090 $850 −$240 (-22%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No 59¢ 62¢ $763 $803 +$41 (+5%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 45¢ 43¢ $750 $715 −$34 (-5%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 71¢ 67¢ $694 $653 −$40 (-6%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 36¢ 50¢ $412 $582 +$170 (+41%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 48¢ 26¢ $911 $491 −$420 (-46%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 53¢ 48¢ $513 $462 −$51 (-10%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $435 $444 +$9 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 70¢ 93¢ $327 $437 +$110 (+34%)
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? No 50¢ 60¢ $320 $386 +$66 (+21%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 81¢ 78¢ $244 $233 −$11 (-5%)
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? No 69¢ 82¢ $194 $232 +$38 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 39¢ 46¢ $181 $216 +$35 (+19%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 20¢ 8¢ $466 $193 −$272 (-58%)
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 84¢ $181 $166 −$15 (-8%)
Evo Morales arrested by June 30? No 78¢ 87¢ $148 $166 +$17 (+12%)
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? No 47¢ 79¢ $94 $158 +$64 (+69%)
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Shelton 53¢ 66¢ $122 $151 +$29 (+24%)
ITF Lourinha: Francisco Rocha vs Fabrizio Andaloro Fabrizio Andaloro 62¢ 84¢ $92 $125 +$33 (+36%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? No 51¢ 55¢ $115 $122 +$7 (+6%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 434 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 21 Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Baez Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Cherbourg: Murphy Cassone vs Pavel Kotov Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Starmer say "China" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will "Donald" or "Trump" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience epi Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 22 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on February 11 Jun 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Bublik vs. Brooksby: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 1 Jun 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the Detroit speech on Tuesday? Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 7? Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Karolina Muchova vs Victoria Mboko Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Argentina Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 27? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Toulouse FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 1 Jun 18 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 21 Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 21? Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Powell say "Median" during January press conference? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 14 Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 12? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Brisbane International: Jiri Lehecka vs Tomas Machac Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Nicolas Jarry vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Lugano: Matej Dodig vs Timofey Skatov Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Bomb" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the w Jun 18 $84 −$84 -100%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Ignacio Buse vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
ASB Classic, Qualification: Veronika Erjavec vs Sofia Costoulas Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 2? Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 3? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 29 Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-01-06? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on January 3? Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Trump say "Movie star" during Women's History Month event? Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 3 Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-01-29? Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on December 25 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Leandro Riedi vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Corentin Moutet Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 10? Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Al Hazem SC vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Jun 18 $313 −$313 -100%
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" at Fort Bragg on Friday Jun 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 21? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 2? Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Shelton 53¢ $104 41m
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Shelton 53¢ $3 1h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Shelton 53¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Shelton 53¢ $2 1h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Chandrasekar/Yuzuki vs Balaji/Demoliner BUY Chandrasekar/Yuzuki 49¢ $93 1h
Set Handicap: Korneeva (-1.5) vs Kubka (+1.5) BUY Korneeva 56¢ $63 1h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Shelton 53¢ $11 1h
Set Handicap: Korneeva (-1.5) vs Kubka (+1.5) BUY Korneeva 56¢ $3 1h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Zandschulp (+1.5) BUY Paul 50¢ $122 1h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 49¢ $122 1h
ITF Lourinha: Francisco Rocha vs Fabrizio Andaloro BUY Fabrizio Andaloro 62¢ $2 2h
ITF Lourinha: Francisco Rocha vs Fabrizio Andaloro BUY Fabrizio Andaloro 62¢ $3 2h
ITF Lourinha: Francisco Rocha vs Fabrizio Andaloro BUY Fabrizio Andaloro 62¢ $87 3h
Set Handicap: Mazdrashki (-1.5) vs Papoe (+1.5) BUY Papoe 47¢ $1 3h
ITF Saarlouis: Niels Ratiu vs Pieter De Lange BUY Niels Ratiu 61¢ $96 3h
Zverev vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 56¢ $95 3h
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? SELL No 83¢ $0 22h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 47¢ $97 24h
ITF Lourinha: Adhithya Ganesan vs Rigele Te BUY Rigele Te 48¢ $1 27h
ITF Lourinha: Adhithya Ganesan vs Rigele Te BUY Rigele Te 48¢ $1 27h
ITF Lourinha: Adhithya Ganesan vs Rigele Te BUY Rigele Te 48¢ $48 27h
ITF Lourinha: Adhithya Ganesan vs Rigele Te BUY Rigele Te 48¢ $15 27h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $101 27h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Nicolas Bruna vs Boris Butulija BUY Nicolas Bruna 54¢ $45 27h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Nicolas Bruna vs Boris Butulija BUY Nicolas Bruna 54¢ $5 27h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Nicolas Bruna vs Boris Butulija BUY Nicolas Bruna 54¢ $1 27h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Nicolas Bruna vs Boris Butulija BUY Nicolas Bruna 54¢ $8 27h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Niccolo Baroni vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 65¢ $89 27h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 52¢ $25 27h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 52¢ $19 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,853.92 · official $12,880.26 (match) · 3500 history records