Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D0 0xd057…ff3d crypto 55 markets active 10h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3408 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$29 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%29W / 475L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day3408.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$55
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3408 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-76.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 504 -74.0% -76.4% 6% 3% -9.8%
≤30d 504 -74.0% -76.4% 6% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 504 -74.0% -76.4% 6% 3% -9.8%
all 504 -74.0% -76.4% 6% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3408.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -76.4% 3% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -78.7% 3% -18.4%
15% -80.8% 2% -26.3%
20% -82.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -77% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
34.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×15.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses29 / 475
Open positions51
Markets (closed)504 / 55
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$104
Trades / day3408.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 449 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 17 $0 $0 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 92°F or higher on June 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or below on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1049%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 63°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +2153%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C or higher on June 1 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 -65%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $0 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $0 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $0 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $0 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $0 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.09 (match) · 3500 history records