Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D0
0xd058…a812
other · 41 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$83 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$82 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses3 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 41
History coverage35d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%
Chart Positions 2 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$54
14 days−$69
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Enzo Maresca be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 −$8 -15%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $78 −$12 -16%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $133 −$7 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $66 −$8 -12%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $63 −$2 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $48 −$7 -15%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $16 −$3 -19%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 −$3 -19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $7 −$3 -35%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$6 -54%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $7 $0 +1%
Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win LoL Worlds 2026? Jun 05 $7 −$6 -88%
Anthropic acquired before 2027? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -57%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $14 −$8 -59%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $6 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -13%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $3 $0 -7%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Enzo Maresca be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will Valve remove Nuke from the Map Pool? May 09 $10 −$6 -61%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 09 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 09 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 81% −$65
sports 11% −$8
politics 3% $0
crypto 3% −$8
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 0m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 8m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 10m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 12m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 44m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 46m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 47m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $5 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $5 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $5 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $5 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $5 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $5 8h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $5 8h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -10.5% -19.0% 12% 6% -18.5%
≤30d 25 -22.0% -29.4% 8% 4% -20.4%
≤90d 30 -23.7% -31.0% 10% 3% -21.0%
all 30 -23.7% -31.0% 10% 3% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 3% -21.0%
10% -37.6% 3% -28.6%
15% -43.6% 3% -35.5%
20% -49.1% 0% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.53 · official $3.53 (match) · 325 history records