Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D0 0xd059…3afc crypto 577 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (194 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$286 (-4%) realized −$286 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate66%379W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day193.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$183
7 days−$318
14 days−$581
30 days−$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$581
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (194 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -12.4% -20.8% 71% 24% -19.1%
≤30d 576 -12.2% -20.5% 66% 30% -17.6%
≤90d 576 -12.2% -20.5% 66% 30% -17.6%
all 576 -12.2% -20.5% 66% 30% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover193.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 30% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 12% -25.5%
15% -35.1% 6% -32.7%
20% -41.4% 3% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$286
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses379 / 197
Open positions1
Markets (closed)576 / 577
History coverage10d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day193.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 576 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $38 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $68 −$67 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $78 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 28 $67 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $61 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 28 $56 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $53 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $36 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $28 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $28 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 28 $27 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $24 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $15 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $30 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $15 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $8 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $21 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.95 (match) · 2086 history records