Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D0 0xd05c…ade7 sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$381 (+15%) realized +$421 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%40W / 27L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$600
7 days+$785
14 days+$728
30 days+$728
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$591
other 26% +$244
world 4% −$97
crypto 3% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +30.3% +17.9% 63% 63% +31.4%
≤30d 67 +19.5% +8.1% 60% 60% +22.3%
≤90d 67 +19.5% +8.1% 60% 60% +22.3%
all 67 +19.5% +8.1% 60% 60% +22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 60% +22.3%
10% -2.3% 58% +10.6%
15% -11.7% 58% -0.1%
20% -20.4% 52% -9.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$23 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$421
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses40 / 27
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 72
History coverage11d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia leading at halftime? Yes 54¢ 30¢ $90 $50 −$40 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$39 +128%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$36 +73%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$55 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$31 +61%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$55 +108%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 Jun 17 $122 +$108 +88%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 +$49 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $81 +$89 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $97 +$135 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 −$3 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 +$38 +123%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$76 +249%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $20 +$21 +103%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$18 +61%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$16 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$44 +216%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$38 +62%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $29 +$10 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $61 +$35 +58%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 +$17 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$15 +143%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $17 +$17 +99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $36 +$50 +141%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$14 +140%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $14 +$10 +68%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$19 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $32 +$28 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $91 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 48¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $106 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $49 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 59¢ $102 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $41 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 23h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $101 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 61¢ $51 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $51 23h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $49 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 BUY 52¢ $122 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $170 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $81 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 41¢ $97 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $88 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $91 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 38¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 49¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $20 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $150.00 · 129 history records