Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd05d…e014 crypto 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate94%103W / 6L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 16% -8.7%
≤30d 109 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 16% -8.7%
≤90d 109 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 16% -8.7%
all 109 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 16% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 16% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 9% -17.4%
15% -26.2% 2% -25.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses103 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 0¢ 84¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.17 · official $1.12 (match) · 247 history records