Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

D0 0xd05d…4cba other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,110 (+10%) realized +$1,297 · open −$187

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate95%18W / 1L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown47%max

Avg bet$532per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$242

7 days+$878

14 days+$1,053

30 days+$1,053

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)-1.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+7.6%	-2.7%	94%	50%	-0.6%
≤30d	19	+8.8%	-1.6%	95%	53%	-0.1%
≤90d	19	+8.8%	-1.6%	95%	53%	-0.1%
all	19	+8.8%	-1.6%	95%	53%	-0.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.6%	53%	-0.1%
10%	-11.0%	21%	-9.7%
15%	-19.6%	5%	-18.4%
20%	-27.5%	5%	-26.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 48% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

44% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$502) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +13% → late +5% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$86 vs −$499 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$313

Realized+$1,297

Unrealized−$187

Win rate (resolved)95%

Wins / losses18 / 1

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage9d

Avg bet$532

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown47%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	No	87¢	55¢	$500	$313	−$187 (-37%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$500	+$114	+23%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$501	+$22	+4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$502	+$44	+9%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$500	+$62	+12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$500	+$5	+1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$495	+$63	+13%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$880	+$617	+70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$499	−$499	-100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$500	+$1	+0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$500	+$85	+17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$502	+$66	+13%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1,001	+$12	+1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$503	+$106	+21%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$500	+$11	+2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$501	+$42	+8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$499	+$128	+26%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$499	+$73	+15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$500	+$44	+9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$250	+$57	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	87¢	$502	2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	81¢	$500	4h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	96¢	$501	23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	93¢	$546	23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	85¢	$502	23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	94¢	$562	26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	83¢	$500	26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	99¢	$500	2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	SELL No	91¢	$559	2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	80¢	$495	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,497	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$880	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$499	3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	100¢	$500	3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL No	100¢	$585	4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	85¢	$500	4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	100¢	$568	5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	88¢	$502	5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	100¢	$512	5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	98¢	$500	5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	98¢	$501	5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	98¢	$500	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	94¢	$609	6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	77¢	$503	6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	100¢	$511	6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	98¢	$500	6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	SELL No	100¢	$543	6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	92¢	$501	6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	SELL No	100¢	$627	6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	79¢	$499	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.22 · official $313.22 (match) · 43 history records