Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D0 0xd05e…0c97 crypto 730 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$134 (-4%) realized −$134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate60%436W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$43
14 days+$82
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$151
sports 1% +$12
other 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 229 +3.1% -6.7% 93% 20% -6.4%
≤30d 729 +0.5% -9.1% 60% 36% -14.2%
≤90d 729 +0.5% -9.1% 60% 36% -14.2%
all 729 +0.5% -9.1% 60% 36% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 36% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 32% -22.4%
15% -25.7% 29% -29.9%
20% -33.0% 28% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses436 / 293
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)729 / 730
History coverage29d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 729 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2132 history records