Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D0 0xd064…c4d1 crypto 943 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8,924 (-10%) realized −$8,961 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate88%753W / 106L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day89.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$4,623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$1,535
world 16% +$946
other 12% −$313
finance 2% −$323
sports 2% −$985
economics 1% +$152
tech 0% +$13
politics 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -1.3% -10.7% 81% 33% -5.6%
≤30d 859 -3.1% -12.4% 88% 13% -11.9%
≤90d 859 -3.1% -12.4% 88% 13% -11.9%
all 859 -3.1% -12.4% 88% 13% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 13% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 7% -20.3%
15% -28.4% 4% -28.0%
20% -35.4% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$56 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$4,623
Realized−$8,961
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses753 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions110
Markets (closed)859 / 943
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$91
Trades / day89.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 110 History 859 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $1,629 $1,632 +$3 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $718 $752 +$35 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $184 $195 +$10 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 92¢ 98¢ $84 $90 +$6 (+7%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 92¢ 96¢ $83 $86 +$3 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 96¢ $59 $69 +$10 (+16%)
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 90¢ 98¢ $63 $68 +$5 (+9%)
Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 95¢ 98¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 70¢ 88¢ $42 $54 +$11 (+27%)
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $48 $49 +$2 (+3%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 72¢ 97¢ $36 $48 +$12 (+35%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 97¢ 93¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-4%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 93¢ 94¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 91¢ 96¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+6%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 68¢ 69¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 95¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 97¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 92¢ 99¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $336 +$43 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $405 +$5 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? Jun 25 $313 +$5 +2%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -2% and 0% in May? Jun 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will McCormick (MKC) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- Jun 25 $791 +$5 +1%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Jun 25 $0 $0 -95%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paychex (PAYX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $6 +$4 +54%
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 82.5% and 85%? Jun 24 $152 +$2 +1%
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 80% and 82.5%? Jun 24 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.5B? Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Jefferies (JEF) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B? Jun 24 $207 +$3 +1%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B? Jun 24 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $130 +$20 +15%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $93 +$7 +7%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 24 $34 −$33 -100%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $9 +$1 +14%
Will KB Home (KBH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 23 $85 $0 +0%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 23 $200 −$5 -2%
Will Jordan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 23 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Wells Fargo fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will BNY fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $22 +$7 +34%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$3 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $27 +$3 +11%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 23 $8 +$2 +26%
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals Jun 23 $35 +$3 +7%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $10 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $33 +$7 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $6 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 23¢ $16 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 24¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $26 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 77¢ $8 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $19 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 8h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- SELL No 100¢ $79 10h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? BUY No 99¢ $179 10h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? BUY No 94¢ $34 10h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? BUY No 99¢ $100 10h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -2% and 0% in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $17 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,622.62 · official $4,622.57 (match) · 3500 history records