Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd066…2981 weather 884 markets active 15h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$214 (+0%) realized +$214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%817W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$10
14 days+$15
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$1,391
politics 1% +$20
other 1% +$15
sports 1% −$26
crypto 0% +$8
tech 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
culture 0% −$2
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 71 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 190 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 883 -3.8% -12.9% 93% 1% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 1% -10.6%
10% -21.3% 0% -19.1%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.9%
20% -35.8% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$32 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$491
Realized+$214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses817 / 66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)883 / 884
History coverage603d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 883 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $491 $491 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 28? Jun 28 $490 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 27? Jun 27 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $239 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $352 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $293 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $480 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $340 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $310 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $153 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $213 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $178 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $412 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $276 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $294 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $424 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $104 −$6 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $368 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $208 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $238 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $212 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $448 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $94 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $491 14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $490 27h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $66 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $173 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $250 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $352 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $24 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $96 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $189 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $282 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $455 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $25 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $340 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $141 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $310 8d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $152 8d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $17 8d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $213 9d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $148 9d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $112 9d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $178 10d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $299 10d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $412 11d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $108 12d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $250 12d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 12d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $80 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $490.75 · official $490.75 (match) · 2994 history records