Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd066…9eec sports 631 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$69 (-1%) realized −$105 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%293W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$73
14 days+$54
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$21
other 30% −$148
culture 0% −$12
world 0% +$10
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +6.6% -3.6% 58% 54% +7.2%
≤30d 65 -21.0% -28.5% 43% 42% -35.3%
≤90d 419 -27.9% -34.8% 33% 32% -31.5%
all 608 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 47% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 47% -10.3%
10% -19.2% 44% -18.9%
15% -27.0% 40% -26.7%
20% -34.2% 35% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses293 / 315
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions16
Markets (closed)608 / 631
History coverage145d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 608 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs LYON 54¢ 100¢ $15 $28 +$13 (+85%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Over 32¢ 16¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 14¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-57%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 15¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-30%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-79%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Over 16¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 72¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Jeremy Doku: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Portsmouth FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Over 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $14 +$13 +93%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $30 +$9 +29%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $15 +$17 +114%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzeg Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$14 +134%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $13 +$19 +146%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $24 +$16 +67%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +67%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $25 +$15 +60%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 08 $10 +$6 +62%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $5 +$7 +146%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Curaçao vs. Aruba: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +93%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $10 +$8 +83%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $54 +$20 +36%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $10 +$7 +65%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $41 +$9 +23%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $15 +$29 +188%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $19 +$8 +42%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $41 +$65 +158%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $23 +$19 +83%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $10 +$6 +62%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $25 +$13 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $15 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $13 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $15 5h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $39 5h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $108 5h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $14 10h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $30 10h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $100 10h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 10h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 15¢ $5 10h
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 10h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 43¢ $5 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $4 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $7 26h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY 8¢ $5 26h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY 15¢ $10 26h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $30 34h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 46¢ $15 34h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Austra BUY 2¢ $5 37h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $11 37h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzer BUY 6¢ $5 37h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $25 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 2¢ $5 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzeg SELL 10¢ $5 46h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U BUY 5¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.80 · official $119.81 (match) · 1302 history records