Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd06a…0fb2 sports 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-4%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%32W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$125
other 8% +$26
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +31.5% +19.0% 100% 100% +19.0%
all 65 +5.3% -4.7% 49% 49% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 49% -13.3%
10% -13.8% 43% -21.6%
15% -22.1% 28% -29.2%
20% -29.8% 22% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$28 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses32 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage500d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 70¢ 69¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan end in a draw? May 17 $38 +$12 +32%
Magic vs. Pistons May 06 $39 +$12 +31%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 29 $38 +$12 +30%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Feb 23 $38 +$12 +33%
Browns vs. Bengals Jan 04 $38 −$38 -100%
Stars vs. Sharks Dec 19 $41 +$20 +49%
Will Chelsea FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Dec 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Minnesota Oct 18 $15 +$35 +233%
Liberty vs. Valkyries Sep 03 $11 +$24 +223%
Rockies vs. Cardinals Aug 12 $33 +$17 +52%
White Sox vs. Rockies Aug 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Twins Jul 04 $22 +$28 +127%
Knicks vs. Celtics May 06 $22 +$78 +354%
Nuggets vs. Clippers May 05 $16 +$34 +212%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Apr 11 $78 +$22 +28%
Hurricanes vs. Red Wings Apr 05 $37 +$63 +170%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks Apr 04 $66 −$66 -100%
Clippers vs. Cavaliers Apr 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Mar 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Flyers vs. Maple Leafs Mar 28 $45 +$19 +43%
Magic vs. Wizards Mar 25 $75 +$25 +33%
Jets vs. Canucks Mar 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Hornets vs. Clippers Mar 18 $85 +$15 +18%
Bruins vs. Senators Mar 16 $65 +$35 +54%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? Mar 11 $79 +$21 +27%
Will Rangers win on 2025-03-06? Mar 09 $13 +$53 +411%
Penguins vs. Avalanche Mar 06 $30 +$12 +39%
Thunder vs. Spurs Mar 04 $87 +$13 +15%
Pelicans vs. Suns Mar 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Feb 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Sharks vs. Flames Feb 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Feb 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Feb 24 $46 +$15 +32%
Will Southampton vs. Brighton end in a draw? Feb 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Rockets vs. Jazz Feb 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers Feb 23 $11 +$41 +376%
Grizzlies vs. Magic Feb 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bucks vs. Wizards Feb 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Leicester vs. Brentford end in a draw? Feb 22 $36 +$11 +32%
Celtics vs. 76ers Feb 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Hornets vs. Nuggets Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Suns vs. Spurs Feb 21 $20 +$23 +117%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-02-19? Feb 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will PSV Eindhoven vs. Juventus end in a draw? Feb 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-19? Feb 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. Feyenoord end in a draw? Feb 19 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Benfica vs. Monaco end in a draw? Feb 19 $15 +$48 +317%
Will Atalanta vs. Club Brugge end in a draw? Feb 19 $60 +$15 +25%
Canada vs. Finland Feb 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $35 1h
Will Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $38 41d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 76¢ $39 60d
Pelicans vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 77¢ $38 95d
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $38 125d
Browns vs. Bengals BUY Bengals 76¢ $38 174d
Stars vs. Sharks BUY Stars 67¢ $41 191d
Will Chelsea FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 213d
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Minnesota BUY Minnesota 30¢ $15 253d
Liberty vs. Valkyries BUY Valkyries 31¢ $11 298d
Rockies vs. Cardinals BUY Cardinals 66¢ $33 320d
White Sox vs. Rockies BUY Rockies 46¢ $46 358d
Blue Jays vs. Twins BUY Blue Jays 44¢ $22 386d
Knicks vs. Celtics BUY Knicks 22¢ $22 418d
Nuggets vs. Clippers BUY Nuggets 32¢ $16 427d
Cavaliers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 78¢ $78 443d
Hurricanes vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 37¢ $37 449d
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 66¢ $66 452d
Clippers vs. Cavaliers BUY Clippers 29¢ $21 454d
Suns vs. Timberwolves BUY Suns 30¢ $15 456d
Flyers vs. Maple Leafs BUY Maple Leafs 70¢ $45 459d
Magic vs. Wizards BUY Magic 75¢ $75 463d
Jets vs. Canucks BUY Jets 61¢ $23 465d
Hornets vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 85¢ $85 468d
Bruins vs. Senators BUY Senators 65¢ $65 471d
Clippers vs. Pelicans BUY Clippers 72¢ $44 473d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 475d
Will Rangers win on 2025-03-06? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 478d
Penguins vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 72¢ $30 480d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 87¢ $87 481d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.74 · official $34.75 (match) · 130 history records