Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

D0 0xd06b…3273 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$96 (+16%) realized +$82 · open +$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate57%12W / 9L

Drawdown50%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day22.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-17.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-8.8%	-17.5%	57%	43%	+1.3%
≤30d	21	-8.8%	-17.5%	57%	43%	+1.3%
≤90d	21	-8.8%	-17.5%	57%	43%	+1.3%
all	21	-8.8%	-17.5%	57%	43%	+1.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover22.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-17.5%	43%	+1.3%
10% ← realistic here	-25.4%	43%	-8.4%
15%	-32.6%	33%	-17.2%
20%	-39.2%	19%	-25.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +20% → late -35% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$24

Realized+$82

Unrealized+$14

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses12 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day22.7

Drawdown50%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	Yes	41¢	100¢	$10	$24	+$14 (+144%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 17	$20	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Jun 17	$21	+$17	+82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 17	$10	+$8	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Jun 17	$20	+$2	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 17	$11	−$10	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Jun 17	$20	−$20	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 17	$20	+$8	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$9	+170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$2	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$47	+179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$2	+34%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$140	+$10	+7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$24	+24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$91	+$43	+48%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$20	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$38	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$20	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$20	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$14	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$5	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	SELL Up	78¢	$7	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	SELL Up	94¢	$73	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$26	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$26	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$5	11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	93¢	$140	13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$101	21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$134	21h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	62¢	$5	21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$91	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.38 · official $24.38 (match) · 36 history records