Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D0 0xd06d…cc28 crypto 956 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+3%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate76%725W / 231L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$9
sports 2% −$7
other 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +18.1% +6.8% 53% 53% -0.1%
≤30d 41 -1.7% -11.1% 51% 41% -15.1%
≤90d 956 +0.8% -8.8% 76% 59% -8.8%
all 956 +0.8% -8.8% 76% 59% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 59% -8.8%
10% -17.5% 38% -17.5%
15% -25.5% 18% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses725 / 231
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)956 / 956
History coverage73d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 956 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 30 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 29 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mjallby AIF win on 2026-05-17? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kayserispor win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1 +$1 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 16 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 14 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2362 history records