Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd06f…7bfe sports 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$1,361 (-33%) realized −$1,421 · open −$78
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%43W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$935
other 24% −$354
world 16% −$212
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -16.5% -24.4% 33% 22% -19.3%
≤30d 15 -36.7% -42.8% 27% 20% -47.4%
≤90d 129 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 30% -43.0%
all 129 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 30% -43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 30% -43.0%
10% -19.9% 29% -48.5%
15% -27.7% 26% -53.5%
20% -34.7% 25% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$28 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$1,421
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses43 / 86
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions8
Markets (closed)129 / 137
History coverage68d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Over 10¢ $77 $28 −$49 (-64%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28 $24 −$4 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals Yes 20¢ 13¢ $31 $20 −$11 (-35%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3 Ecuador? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 25¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Yes $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Wrexham AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5 Over 77¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5 Yes 25¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5 Yes 57¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce Fenerbahce $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5 Over $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? Yes 20¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5) Pistons 62¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Suns 38¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Yes 52¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Jrue Holiday: Assists O/U 5.5 Yes 51¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Yes 53¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Trail Blazers $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 24¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Real Madrid vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv Hapoel Tel Aviv $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Trail Blazers $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $27 +$2 +7%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $38 −$4 -9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $36 −$2 -6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $29 +$42 +146%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 29 $14 −$14 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $71 −$69 -98%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) May 23 $15 +$15 +97%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $18 −$18 -97%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? May 03 $9 −$9 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5 May 03 $8 −$8 -98%
Tottenham Hotspur FC leading at halftime? May 03 $5 +$13 +263%
Will Juventus FC vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? May 03 $5 $0 +7%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 $0 +7%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $8 −$5 -59%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a dra May 03 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $60 −$59 -97%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) May 03 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) May 03 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $141 −$45 -32%
Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5 May 03 $51 +$63 +124%
Neemias Queta: Points O/U 2.5 May 03 $5 +$4 +83%
Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 6.5 May 02 $6 −$6 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $69 +$68 +99%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 02 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? May 02 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $26 +$82 +317%
Wrexham AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5 May 02 $85 −$85 -100%
Preston North End FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 4.5 May 02 $2 +$3 +135%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $3 +$25 +982%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 02 $3 +$52 +1919%
Pistons vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline May 01 $60 −$59 -98%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $2 +$1 +49%
1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5) May 01 $2 −$2 -99%
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos Apr 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $11 −$11 -97%
Real Madrid vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv Apr 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Apr 29 $202 −$196 -97%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5) Apr 29 $12 −$11 -97%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 28 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 28 $15 +$60 +392%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $99 −$96 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes $5 2m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $27 3m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $31 46m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 46m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $12 47m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 47m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over $31 48m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $35 49m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $5 1h
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $22 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $34 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $10 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $20 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $35 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 21¢ $71 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $26 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $3 25h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $38 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $27 3d
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) BUY Thunder $14 16d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 23¢ $0 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.87 · official $121.88 (match) · 487 history records