Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd071…9047 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$480 (+2%) realized +$487 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$1,127per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$14
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$465
other 0% +$14
finance 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +29.8% +17.4% 100% 100% +17.4%
≤30d 7 -31.4% -37.9% 57% 29% -24.9%
≤90d 14 +6.2% -3.9% 79% 36% -18.0%
all 25 -18.9% -26.6% 56% 32% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 32% -8.1%
10% -33.6% 16% -16.9%
15% -40.0% 8% -25.0%
20% -45.9% 8% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -47% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,157 vs −$1,428 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$487
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,127
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 89¢ 78¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $21 +$6 +30%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $30 −$20 -68%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? May 31 $30 −$30 -99%
Human moon landing in 2026? May 31 $5 $0 +2%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 31 $131 +$21 +16%
Suns vs. Grizzlies May 18 $2 $0 +15%
Credit One Charleston Open: Viktoriya Tomova vs Jennifer Brady May 18 $2 $0 +20%
Bulls vs. Spurs May 18 $3 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? May 18 $5 +$14 +257%
Hornets vs. Suns Mar 08 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-4.5) Mar 08 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Mar 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) Mar 08 $7,010 −$7,010 -100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5 Mar 08 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Wizards vs. Hawks Mar 06 $8 +$1 +15%
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5) Mar 06 $15,515 +$16,148 +104%
Spread: Magic (-8.5) Mar 05 $15 $0 -2%
Heat vs. Wizards Feb 24 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Uber Technologies (UBER) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Heat Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 1h
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 11¢ $27 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 13d
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? SELL No 98¢ $20 13d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $21 20d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No 38¢ $20 20d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 89¢ $30 20d
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? BUY No 97¢ $20 20d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 20d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 20d
Human moon landing in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 20d
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 86¢ $131 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $10 62d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 62d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 62d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 62d
Bulls vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 94¢ $3 81d
Suns vs. Grizzlies BUY Suns 87¢ $2 81d
Credit One Charleston Open: Viktoriya Tomova vs Jennifer Brady BUY Viktoriya Tomova 83¢ $2 81d
Hornets vs. Suns BUY Hornets 62¢ $13 103d
Hornets vs. Suns BUY Hornets 62¢ $1,000 103d
Spread: Hornets (-4.5) BUY Hornets 51¢ $2,000 103d
Spread: Hornets (-4.5) BUY Hornets 51¢ $2,000 103d
Celtics vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 51¢ $8 103d
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) BUY Cavaliers 50¢ $1,010 103d
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) BUY Cavaliers 50¢ $2,000 103d
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) BUY Cavaliers 50¢ $2,000 103d
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) BUY Cavaliers 50¢ $2,000 103d
Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,200 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.14 · official $76.14 (match) · 60 history records