Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D0 0xd074…f6c1 crypto 1547 markets active 2d ago coverage 35d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,857 (-56%) realized −$1,857 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%529W / 1018L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$130
14 days−$1,321
30 days−$394
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$136
weather 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -15.1% -23.2% 56% 49% -25.4%
≤30d 1276 -27.7% -34.6% 33% 33% -21.2%
≤90d 1547 -19.6% -27.3% 34% 34% -13.4%
all 1547 -19.6% -27.3% 34% 34% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 34% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 33% -21.7%
15% -40.6% 32% -29.2%
20% -46.4% 29% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -78% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,857
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses529 / 1018
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1547 / 1547
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1547 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$11 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records