Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:02:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D0 0xd084…bdc9 other 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 341d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$1,004 (+47%) realized +$627 · open +$377
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip
Net edge+70%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 30L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$1,125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$60
14 days+$305
30 days+$338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$843
sports 14% −$119
world 5% +$144
tech 2% −$27
politics 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+70.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +98.3% +79.4% 80% 80% +11.7%
≤30d 25 +77.8% +60.9% 56% 56% +49.8%
≤90d 50 +98.7% +79.8% 46% 46% +33.0%
all 55 +88.0% +70.1% 45% 45% +24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +70.1% 45% +24.5%
10% +53.8% 45% +12.6%
15% +39.0% 45% +1.7%
20% +25.3% 38% -8.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +141% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$18 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$1,125
Realized+$627
Unrealized+$377
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions20
Markets (closed)55 / 75
History coverage341d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August? Yes 12¢ 78¢ $56 $356 +$300 (+538%)
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? No 64¢ 100¢ $104 $163 +$59 (+57%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 33¢ 41¢ $125 $158 +$32 (+26%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $182 $125 −$57 (-32%)
Will FURIA Make a Roster Change before September? No 55¢ 74¢ $71 $95 +$25 (+35%)
Will FUT Esports Make a Roster Change before September? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+5%)
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 7¢ 6¢ $39 $31 −$8 (-21%)
Will Aurora make a roster change before July? Yes 18¢ 55¢ $9 $27 +$18 (+203%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $13 $21 +$8 (+65%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+43%)
Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July? Yes 4¢ 11¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+156%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? No 8¢ 3¢ $34 $14 −$20 (-59%)
Will 9z Make a Roster Change before September? No 51¢ 69¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $4 $11 +$7 (+182%)
Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31? Yes 6¢ 35¢ $1 $9 +$7 (+491%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? No 12¢ 4¢ $19 $7 −$12 (-64%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Erika Hilton win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump resign before 2027? Jun 23 $1 $0 +40%
Will Astralis make a roster change before July? Jun 23 $31 +$77 +251%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $138 −$138 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $21 +$21 +100%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $7 +$19 +267%
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? Jun 19 $16 +$38 +231%
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? Jun 18 $24 +$35 +145%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +69%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +69%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$3 -44%
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$5 +153%
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $20 +$80 +400%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $27 +$246 +927%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $17 +$27 +160%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $41 +$17 +42%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 31 $18 +$32 +180%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $46 +$24 +52%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $49 +$21 +43%
Will Israel come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 +$80 +3233%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$50 +99%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $71 +$32 +45%
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $48 +$40 +84%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 +$93 +1912%
Will Lithuania come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 −$11 -49%
Will Poland come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $11 −$7 -65%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Malta come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Serbia come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $19 +$16 +84%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $78 −$74 -96%
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Belgium come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 10 $23 −$22 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA Make a Roster Change before September? BUY No 55¢ $72 5m
Will 9z Make a Roster Change before September? BUY No 51¢ $10 1h
Will FUT Esports Make a Roster Change before September? BUY Yes 72¢ $47 1h
Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY No 6¢ $11 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 12¢ $20 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY No 6¢ $0 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY No 6¢ $0 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY No 6¢ $1 14h
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? SELL No 100¢ $4 15h
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? SELL No 100¢ $200 19h
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? SELL No 100¢ $100 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY No 11¢ $23 20h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 39h
Will Trump resign before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 39h
Will Astralis make a roster change before July? SELL No 84¢ $108 39h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 2d
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 2d
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July? SELL Yes 27¢ $84 2d
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,125.34 · official $1,125.36 (match) · 227 history records