Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

D0 0xd084…9ef9 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$133 (+19%) realized +$133 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip

Net edge-48%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$103per market

Trades / day6.3pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-45.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-40.1%	-45.8%	40%	40%	-29.6%
≤30d	5	-40.1%	-45.8%	40%	40%	-29.6%
≤90d	5	-40.1%	-45.8%	40%	40%	-29.6%
all	5	-40.1%	-45.8%	40%	40%	-29.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-45.8%	40%	-29.6%
10%	-51.0%	40%	-36.3%
15%	-55.7%	40%	-42.5%
20%	-60.0%	0%	-48.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -22% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -40% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$51 vs −$71 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.48 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$11

Realized+$133

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage2d

Avg bet$103

Trades / day6.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	71¢	70¢	$6	$6	−$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	58¢	58¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$442	−$198	-45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$145	+$57	+40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$44	+43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$9	−$4	-44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$6	11m
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5	14m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$240	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	91¢	$240	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$202	16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$202	16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$145	22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$145	22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	99¢	$10	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	49¢	$5	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	53¢	$4	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.00 · official $11.00 (match) · 13 history records