Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd085…c487 other 255 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$37
sports 26% −$24
politics 8% −$7
culture 6% −$7
economics 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$5
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)254 / 255
History coverage135d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $307 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $432 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $192 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $340 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $733 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $130 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $816 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $296 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $284 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $505 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $286 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $138 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $503 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $522 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $645 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $205 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $293 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $244 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $343 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 29m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 4h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 5h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 7h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 8h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 10h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 11h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 16h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 18h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 19h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 21h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 23h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 24h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 26h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $64 27h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 35h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 36h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 38h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 40h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 42h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 44h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 45h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 46h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.87 · official $62.87 (match) · 1361 history records