Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd086…7bc1 politics 211 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%48W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$6
other 26% −$2
world 8% −$21
crypto 8% +$2
sports 6% −$1
weather 5% −$8
culture 2% −$10
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -3.1% -12.3% 5% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 31 -1.8% -11.2% 10% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 161 -0.5% -10.0% 16% 0% -10.8%
all 211 -0.4% -9.9% 23% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -10.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses48 / 163
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)211 / 211
History coverage111d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 211 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 29? Jun 27 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? Jun 27 $31 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? Jun 27 $53 −$4 -7%
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al Jun 27 $55 $0 -1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 27 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 28? Jun 27 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 29? Jun 27 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28? Jun 27 $17 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 -3%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 27 $66 −$10 -15%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? Jun 27 $68 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $25 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $7 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $18 −$1 -4%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 27 $40 $0 -1%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 24 $32 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $6 $0 -2%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $8 $0 +3%
Spread: Real Zaragoza (-1.5) Jun 01 $8 $0 +5%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $46 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $27 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 28 $8 $0 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 29? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? SELL Yes 47¢ $29 54m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 54m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 58m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 42¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 43¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 45¢ $53 1h
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al SELL Yes 86¢ $54 1h
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY Yes 86¢ $55 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? SELL Yes 46¢ $54 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 46¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 28? SELL Yes 50¢ $55 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 28? BUY Yes 50¢ $56 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 29? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 28? SELL Yes 38¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 28? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 5h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between SELL Yes 17¢ $56 6h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY Yes 19¢ $66 6h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $68 13h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $68 13h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $5 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $6 15h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $6 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1032 history records