Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd086…bd7b crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+6%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$2
other 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 86% 14% -4.7%
≤30d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 86% 14% -4.7%
≤90d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 86% 14% -4.7%
all 14 +0.9% -8.7% 86% 14% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 14% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 7% -13.8%
15% -25.4% 0% -22.1%
20% -32.7% 0% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.74 · official $2.74 (match) · 37 history records