Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd087…b390 politics 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,359 (+5%) realized +$1,435 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%57W / 68L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$336
7 days−$247
14 days−$247
30 days−$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$231
other 18% +$2,246
world 9% −$225
crypto 6% −$189
tech 6% −$403
sports 0% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -20.3% -27.9% 39% 27% -14.1%
≤30d 56 -20.3% -27.9% 39% 27% -14.1%
≤90d 56 -20.3% -27.9% 39% 27% -14.1%
all 125 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 34% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 34% -4.7%
10% -25.4% 21% -13.8%
15% -32.6% 14% -22.1%
20% -39.2% 11% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$52 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$1,587
Realized+$1,435
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses57 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)125 / 129
History coverage602d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $924 $860 −$64 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 52¢ 51¢ $397 $388 −$9 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $340 $338 −$2 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 17 $40 −$23 -58%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 17 $90 −$42 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 17 $206 −$14 -7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -12%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $7 $0 -7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -13%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $18 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 $0 -1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $802 −$115 -14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $448 −$65 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $92 +$4 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $74 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 17 $483 −$14 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $184 +$39 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $191 +$19 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $288 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $254 −$50 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$80 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 +$38 +172%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $394 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $251 14m
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 14m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $48 15m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $192 17m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $26 20m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 92¢ $276 23m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $90 23m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 24m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 24m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 24m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 24m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 24m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 24m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 25m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $19 25m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $297 27m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $51 51m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $141 53m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 82¢ $40 53m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 57m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $301 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $54 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $54 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $206 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $500 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 61¢ $687 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 81¢ $278 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 83¢ $285 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $169 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 90¢ $96 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,587.32 · official $1,588.04 (match) · 874 history records