Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd090…3bc5 weather 69 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$30 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate60%41W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% −$174
sports 35% +$81
other 4% +$52
crypto 3% −$58
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -18.1% -25.9% 59% 37% -12.1%
≤30d 68 -17.5% -25.3% 60% 35% -11.9%
≤90d 68 -17.5% -25.3% 60% 35% -11.9%
all 68 -17.5% -25.3% 60% 35% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 35% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 22% -20.3%
15% -39.0% 13% -28.0%
20% -45.0% 7% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$21 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses41 / 27
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage6d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$30 -81%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $53 −$14 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $113 −$110 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $50 +$10 +20%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $42 +$14 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$42 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $53 −$13 -24%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $42 −$40 -95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $105 +$25 +24%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $42 +$14 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $47 −$3 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $52 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $104 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $52 +$17 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $167 +$27 +16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $141 +$24 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $161 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $152 +$10 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $129 +$23 +18%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$24 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$10 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$6 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$12 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$19 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$4 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 42h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 37¢ $39 42h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 42h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 42h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 42h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 91¢ $53 42h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 43h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 100¢ $58 43h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 45h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 86¢ $50 45h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus SELL Lin Zhu 99¢ $60 45h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus BUY Lin Zhu 82¢ $50 45h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Suzan Lamens 100¢ $55 45h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 47h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $53 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $40 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 72¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 139 history records