trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers vs. Minnesota | Rutgers | 36¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $54 | $0 | −$54 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? | Dec 19 | $47,934 | +$6,750 | +14% |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Oct 03 | $7,520 | +$40 | +0% |
| Will Morgan Wallen perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Oct 03 | $1,870 | +$78 | +4% |
| Will Metallica perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Oct 03 | $1,058 | +$40 | +4% |
| Will Miley Cyrus perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Oct 03 | $354 | +$19 | +5% |
| Will Justin Bieber perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Oct 03 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jay-Z perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Oct 03 | $917 | +$10 | +1% |
| Will Green Day perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Oct 03 | $96 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Luke Combs perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Oct 03 | $95 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Foo Fighters perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Oct 03 | $240 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Ed Sheeran perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Oct 03 | $277 | +$2 | +1% |
| Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? | Oct 03 | $11,799 | −$99 | -1% |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? | Oct 03 | $7,030 | −$2,466 | -35% |
| Will Oasis perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Oct 03 | $196 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? | Oct 02 | $2,638 | +$436 | +16% |
| Will Post Malone perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Oct 02 | $114 | −$67 | -58% |
| Will The Killers perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Oct 01 | $325 | −$3 | -1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Oct 01 | $6,951 | +$460 | +7% |
| Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? | Sep 30 | $16,241 | +$4,213 | +26% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Sep 30 | $70,448 | +$21,103 | +30% |
| Rutgers vs. Minnesota | Sep 27 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 22 | $1,839 | +$669 | +36% |
| Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed in 2025? | Sep 22 | $481 | −$335 | -70% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? | Sep 19 | $916 | +$346 | +38% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 17 | $1,760 | +$28 | +2% |
| Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Monday? | Aug 17 | $1,772 | +$141 | +8% |
| Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025? | Aug 10 | $54 | −$54 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 27 | -6.2% | -15.1% | 70% | 22% | +6.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -15.1% | 22% | +6.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -23.3% | 15% | -4.2% |
| 15% | -30.7% | 7% | -13.4% |
| 20% | -37.5% | 0% | -21.9% |