Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd094…459a crypto 186 markets active 6d ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,024 (-13%) realized −$1,024 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%86W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$123
14 days−$123
30 days−$1,116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,155
weather 1% −$37
other 1% −$1
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.3% -9.8% 65% 21% -13.6%
≤30d 158 -15.7% -23.7% 50% 30% -12.4%
≤90d 186 -16.9% -24.8% 46% 28% -13.2%
all 186 -16.9% -24.8% 46% 28% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 28% -13.2%
10% -32.0% 16% -21.5%
15% -38.6% 11% -29.1%
20% -44.6% 6% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,024
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses86 / 100
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage27d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $45 −$22 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $143 −$121 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $111 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $111 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $152 −$33 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $284 −$78 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $203 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $203 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $306 +$33 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $206 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $102 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 29 $9 −$6 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 29 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 29 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 29 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 29 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 29 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 29 $51 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 29 $56 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 29 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 29 $45 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Sout May 29 $27 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 28 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 28 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 28 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 632 history records