Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd09c…0aaa other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$19 (+5%) realized +$17 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days−$132
14 days−$139
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$106
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-65.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -69.8% -72.7% 0% 0% -47.2%
≤30d 55 -62.3% -65.9% 0% 0% -46.6%
≤90d 55 -62.3% -65.9% 0% 0% -46.6%
all 55 -62.3% -65.9% 0% 0% -46.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.9% 0% -46.6%
10% -69.2% 0% -51.7%
15% -72.2% 0% -56.3%
20% -74.9% 0% -60.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 55
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 37
History coverage12d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 50¢ 57¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$26 -88%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 −$26 -87%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -14%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -84%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 -18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 88¢ $26 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 19h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $27 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 23h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 25h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 29h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 32h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 45h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 45h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $8 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 87¢ $9 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $9 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $7 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.00 · official $27.00 (match) · 166 history records