Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:00:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd09d…b15d sports 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,823 (+18%) realized +$6,040 · open −$217
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%62W / 86L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$464est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$759now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,086
7 days+$4,556
14 days+$6,827
30 days+$6,151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$4,070
other 35% +$1,763
crypto 1% +$392
world 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +22.3% +10.6% 50% 50% +20.1%
≤30d 73 +12.9% +2.1% 49% 49% +19.2%
≤90d 148 +5.3% -4.7% 42% 41% +12.1%
all 148 +5.3% -4.7% 42% 41% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 41% +12.1%
10% -13.8% 39% +1.4%
15% -22.1% 38% -8.4%
20% -29.8% 32% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$233 vs −$95 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$759
Realized+$6,040
Unrealized−$217
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses62 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$464
Open positions6
Markets (closed)148 / 157
History coverage71d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 50¢ 93¢ $400 $744 +$344 (+86%)
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists Yes 27¢ 10¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-61%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Scotland 52¢ $250 $3 −$247 (-99%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes $250 $1 −$249 (-99%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 11¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-74%)
Scotland to score first vs. Brazil? Yes 21¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $710 −$45 -6%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $304 +$204 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,013 +$482 +48%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $253 −$233 -92%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $202 −$56 -28%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $405 −$241 -59%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $254 −$26 -10%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $485 +$434 +89%
Qatar to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$17 -33%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,050 +$1,734 +165%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $440 $0 +0%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $303 +$119 +40%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $517 +$431 +83%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $557 +$442 +79%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $410 +$1,132 +276%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $102 −$10 -10%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,529 −$1,094 -72%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $410 −$371 -90%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,013 +$710 +70%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $102 +$231 +226%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $305 +$392 +128%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $202 +$101 +50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $418 +$281 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $323 −$157 -48%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $731 −$101 -14%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $180 −$180 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $152 +$125 +82%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $253 +$209 +82%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $305 +$85 +28%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $203 −$43 -21%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $795 −$8 -1%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $354 +$176 +50%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $237 −$125 -53%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $109 +$89 +82%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $330 +$60 +18%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $53 −$6 -12%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $370 −$25 -7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $641 +$589 +92%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $702 +$94 +13%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$41 -80%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $175 −$52 -30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $418 +$233 +56%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $220 +$180 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $195 +$205 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $409 +$400 +98%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $127 +$93 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 17m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $0 17m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $1,494 17m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $558 23m
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes $14 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes $5 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $507 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $257 1h
Scotland to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $254 2h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $26 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $406 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $304 2h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $253 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1,017 2h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 44¢ $147 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 24¢ $165 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $228 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $664 3h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $919 4h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $202 5h
Qatar to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $254 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $102 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $405 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $710 5h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $485 5h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $35 46h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $758.53 · official $729.98 · 489 history records