Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0a0…3bd4 other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate14%14W / 84L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$11
politics 29% −$8
sports 10% +$46
tech 5% −$1
economics 4% −$1
world 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 64 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 98 +0.8% -8.8% 14% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×9.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage136d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $64 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $321 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $248 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $255 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $253 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $516 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $416 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $282 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $254 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $221 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $263 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $451 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $274 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 08 $257 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $261 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $741 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $264 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $379 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Charl Schwartzel win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $244 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 05 $226 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $480 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $193 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $220 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $204 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $242 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $287 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $230 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 02 $253 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 10d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 17d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $255 20d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $255 34d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $296 38d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $296 39d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $54 56d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 65d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $219 65d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $219 66d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $206 67d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $206 67d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap SELL No 100¢ $249 67d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $249 67d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $218 67d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $218 68d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $198 68d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $198 68d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $253 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.92 · official $53.92 (match) · 302 history records